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Start parcel-level diligence in North McKinney, Lavon, and central or east McKinney.

These three ZIPs combine recorded depth in your price band with either strong community sales pace or unusually little standing supply. Princeton goes on the watch list: its pace is strong, but its median price sits below your band and infrastructure capacity still needs confirmation.

The short list

1. 1

   North McKinneyZIP 75071
   • 272band closings
   • 4.5/motop community
   • 6.4 moband supply

   The deepest recorded demand in the corridor: four communities sell 2 or more homes a month, led by Southridge, and new construction runs about $214 a square foot.

   RiskThe all-home median list price is down 8.2% and 51% of listings have cut price. Underwrite to current evidence, not last year's prices.

2. 2

   LavonZIP 75166
   • 3.8/moElevon pace
   • −9.5%inventory, year over year
   • $171per sq ft, new

   The best pace-to-crowding balance. Days on market improved by 16, and the target price buys more home than in McKinney.

   RiskElevon is a large master plan. Verify its remaining lots, future phases, and pricing before assuming its demand transfers.

3. 3

   Central and east McKinneyZIP 75069
   • 85band closings
   • 7active band listings
   • 1.0 moband supply

   Very little standing new-home supply and little direct competition, with the all-home median list price up 16.3%.

   RiskScarce competition may mean scarce land. Confirm an assemblable site, a utility path, and a land basis that works at your price.

4. W

   PrincetonWatch · ZIP 75407
   • 5.4/moWindmore pace
   • 6.1 moband supply
   • $301Kall-home median

   The fastest community pace in the screen, and the residential building moratorium ended November 30, 2025.

   RiskThe median sits below your band. Verify utility capacity, current standards, and the buyer step-up first. Princeton city update

Collin County grew 3.4% to about 1.30 million residents in 2025, with a $124,920 median household income, but employment was flat year over year. That supports absorption, not aggressive price escalation.

How I screened the corridor

The test is not where growth is happening, but where one community can reliably close 2 to 4 homes a month in your band. I scored each ZIP on band depth, per-community pace, months of supply, market direction, growth and permits, and delivery risk.

Band sales are recorded closings of homes built in 2022 or later and priced from $350,000 to $575,000, in the twelve months ending June 2026. Late-recorded closings and incomplete community attribution make counts and pace lower bounds. Pace is the fastest attributed community's recorded sales a month; supply is months of band inventory. The full ten-column scorecard is in the delivered CSV.

What could change the answer

• The corridor is correcting. Collin County single-family permits fell to 10,013 from 13,396, and 15 of the 24 screened ZIPs have lower median list prices than a year ago. Retest any land basis that needs 2025 pricing.
• Infrastructure can move before zoning does. Prosper and Celina tied new capacity to the Doe Branch expansion, and Anna brought the Hurricane Creek plant online. Confirm water, wastewater, and roads first on every parcel.
• Roads change the market area. Outer Loop Segment 3C opened in November 2025, and the Dallas North Tollway extension to FM 428 is scheduled for late 2027. Plan on the access that exists when the homes sell.

Sources: RealTorch recorded listings and transactions, Realtor.com Research, U.S. Census Building Permits, FRED, Collin County, and NTTA. Analysis prepared August 28, 2026.

Test a 1,950 to 2,300 square foot single-story home around $385,000 to $435,000.

Across five North Dallas corridor ZIPs, this is the clearest product hypothesis in the observed market record. The strongest directly observed price-and-size cell was $400,000 to $450,000 at 2,200 to 2,499 square feet, with 226 price-observed closing records and 13 active listings.

The analysis includes 6,731 price-observed qualifying closing records, 945 active new or newer-construction listings, and 216 pending listings. Story count, garage count, and lot size are not complete on every record, so the recommendation is a position to test, not a finished plan.

The center of buyer activity

The average price-observed closing mix was $441,827 and 2,379 square feet. Current active competition averaged $482,555 and 2,507 square feet, placing the active mix about 9 percent above where buyers transacted in the observed sample.

Among records containing the relevant fields, the average closing was approximately 6,408 square feet of lot area, 3.9 bedrooms, 2.9 baths, and a two-car garage. Those attribute fields have lower coverage than price and square footage, so they narrow the test rather than settle it.

Where current supply is crowded

Product segments whose current active share is larger than their share of price-observed closing records.

High-end detached product is taking a larger share of today's active inventory than it took in the observed closing sample. The same pattern appears in oversized homes, three-car garages, and expensive single-story product.

Where buyer depth appears stronger

Price, size, and story segments with more observed buyer depth than current active supply share.

Central and east McKinney, ZIP 75069, deserves a separate test. It contained 407 price-observed closing records against 13 active new homes, a depth index of 4.40. That may represent a real infill opportunity, or it may reflect scarce buildable land. The next step is a land-availability test.

Story count was known for 55.7 percent of closing records and 89.4 percent of active records. Garage count was known for about 55.2 percent of closings and 89.9 percent of active listings. Lot size was known for 60.9 percent of closings and 42.8 percent of active listings. Those differences make the direction useful, but they require a direct concept test.

Three product positions to test

1. Single story in the middle. Test 1,950 to 2,300 square feet, 3 to 4 bedrooms, 2 to 2.5 baths, a two-car garage, and a 6,000 to 7,500 square foot lot at roughly $385,000 to $435,000. The cheapest useful test is to show one 2,150 square foot single-story concept and one 2,400 square foot two-story concept at the same price and measure which one buyers choose.

2. Two story at the top of the band. Test 2,850 to 3,150 square feet, 4 to 5 bedrooms, 3 to 3.5 baths, a two-car garage, and a 6,000 to 7,000 square foot lot at roughly $490,000 to $545,000. Start with furnished versions of the closest existing plans and review them with salespeople who have recently written contracts in the corridor before commissioning new architecture.

3. Central McKinney infill. Test 2,150 to 2,400 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 to 3 baths, and 5,200 to 6,500 square foot lots in 75069 at roughly $375,000 to $425,000. The cheapest useful test is to identify platted unbuilt inventory and confirm infill standards, utilities, and lot availability with McKinney before developing the product further.

What the market supports, and what it does not decide

The market evidence can narrow the product, price, size, story, garage, and lot hypotheses. It does not establish land basis, finished-lot cost, achievable construction cost, setbacks, utility capacity, plan fit, margin, or the sales pace a particular builder can capture.

Recommended next step: run the equal-price concept test for the single-story position, then screen the land and cost conditions that would have to be true for it to work. If the preference and economics do not hold together, move to the upper-middle two-story position without drawing a new production plan.

Source: RealTorch listing data across five North Dallas ZIPs. Price-observed qualifying closing records are dated August 2024 through March 2026; current active and pending inventory comes from the July 2026 refresh. The depth index uses relative shares and does not depend on an assumed monthly pace. Analysis prepared August 28, 2026.

Open between $392,000 and $412,000 all-in. Target a $372,000 to $402,000 settlement.

The representative subject is a 2,150 square foot, single-story detached home in ZIP 75071 with four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a two-car garage, and a 6,600 square foot lot. The standalone model centers at $387,106 at settlement.

A master-planned community with meaningful amenities can support a different position. Holding the home constant, the model centers near $437,417, a 13 percent premium. The opening price should follow the actual community strategy rather than averaging those two positions together.

The evidence behind the range

Subject-adjusted settlement, active, and pending price evidence across five North Dallas ZIP codes.

Within 75071, the adjusted settlement median is $396,977. Across all five ZIPs, the 75th percentile of achieved pricing is $424,612. That is the practical ceiling for a standalone opening unless the home, lot, or community creates a difference the buyer can see.

Where the comparable homes are

Selected nearby comparable homes and their subject-adjusted values.

Three prices to test

Three opening-price tests and the market evidence associated with each.

$399,900 is the cleanest first live test. It sits close to the ZIP-level adjusted settlement median, preserves room to respond to incentives, and does not ask the market to support the upper-quartile ceiling before the product has earned it.

Translate all-in value into base price

The market establishes the all-in value. The base price depends on how much buyers are expected to add through options and lot premiums.

Base-price bridge from the $387,000 modeled all-in settlement value.

What I need before this becomes a release price

• Finished lot cost and the lot-premium schedule.
• Direct construction cost for the 2,150 square foot subject.
• The required gross-margin floor.
• Expected options revenue and any opening incentive.
• The community amenity position: standalone value or amenity master plan.

Once those inputs are known, the all-in market range can be converted into a release base price without using cost alone to set the market price.

Source: RealTorch recorded new-home settlement, active, and pending listing data across five North Dallas corridor ZIP codes. The subject-adjustment model controls for home size, lot size, story count, bedrooms, baths, garage, age, completion status, days on market, incentives, and community position. Analysis prepared August 29, 2026.

The lot-width decision is really a land-price decision.

The lender moved the file forward and asked four specific credit questions. The connected company workspace showed no new teammate update, so the plan-fit, setback, yield, and geotechnical work remained open. I re-ran the downside and financing cases, checked the cash schedule, updated the decision record, and prepared the lender reply for approval.

Sources Atlas reviewed and what each one changed.

The downside case returns the capital and nothing else

At 2.0 net sales a month, an $18,000 incentive, 5% construction inflation, and a 9.0% all-in rate, time consumes the profit even though direct gross margin remains positive.

Gross margin

17.0%

Net profit

-$40,712

Peak equity

$2.50M

Peak capital

$6.87M

Last closing

33 months

The cash schedule also exposed a modeling issue: its first 14 months run cash to zero, so the $250,000 minimum-cash floor sits on top of peak equity rather than inside it. The practical base liquidity requirement is about $2.92 million.

Peak builder equity under three tested advance-rate cases.

Both lot-width branches point back to the seller

Comparison of the 55-foot and 60-foot lot programs.

Who owns the next actions

Next actions, owners, due dates, and current status.

I updated the record and prepared the reply

This is a live Atlas run using an illustrative North Dallas project workspace built from real market analysis. The project email and operating records were created for this demonstration; private identities and institution details have been removed. Analysis prepared August 29, 2026.